DYNAMIC MODELLING AND ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-SOURCE RENEWABLE ENERGY-BASED MICROGRID SYSTEM DURING UNCERTAINTY

ODETOYE,, OYINLOLU AYOMIDOTUN (2022) DYNAMIC MODELLING AND ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-SOURCE RENEWABLE ENERGY-BASED MICROGRID SYSTEM DURING UNCERTAINTY. Masters thesis, Landmark University, Omu Aran, Kwara State.

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Abstract

Due to environmental concerns, the case for the development of renewable-based electricity infrastructure has grown stronger. The electrical energy access in Arandun Town, Kwara State, Nigeria, is inadequate and in need of improvement. Most intermittent renewable sources of energy have inherent uncertainty in their availability, which could impact the utilization negatively while also affecting the stability of power systems incorporating them. This study assessed the economic and dynamic performance of a proposed multi-source standalone renewable community microgrid under uncertainty in the local renewable resources. The load data and fine-grained climactic data for Arandun were obtained and the major river in the community (Osin River), was gauged. Cost information for equipment was gathered; a techno-economic feasibility study and design optimization in HOMER Pro software was conducted and compared with a diesel alternative on an economic basis. A Social acceptability analysis of the microgrid using a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with 5 inputs was conducted. Probability distributions to characterize the uncertainty in the wind, micro-hydropower, load, and solar resource in each month of the year were developed using MATLAB, with the Weibull, Gumbel, and Lognormal distributions respectively. The microgrid was modelled and simulated in DigSILENT PowerFactory and the voltage stability in each month of the year due to renewable uncertainty was assessed using the Index of Voltage Deviation (IVD). Based on the results of the study, a mixture of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), Photovoltaics (PV), and micro-hydro with energy storage which will be cheaper than a diesel microgrid of equal capacity for the location was found to be reasonably viable, except for wind energy. The three-source (CSP-PV-Hydro), battery-equipped renewable microgrid had a Net Present Cost of $55.7 million compared to $408 million for an equivalent diesel microgrid. Also, the renewable microgrid saved 7,450 metric tons of CO2 per year in emissions for a 25-year simulated project lifetime. The obtained climatic data for each month were found to be representative of the 48 different respective probability distributions as developed in MATLAB, which were then sampled for 12 different Quasi-dynamic simulations based on 14 variables (for each month of the year). The Index of Voltage Deviation (IVD) was used to assess the performance of the renewable microgrid for each month in two scenarios and it was found that the microgrid stability was most at risk in December and January. The results of the feasibility study showed that the renewable microgrid based on the combination of PV, CSP, micro-hydro, and a Battery Energy Storage System is economically and ecologically competitive compared to relying on fossil fuels to meet the electricity demand over time. However, the investment in wind energy in Arandun or similar locations does not look promising. Furthermore, some of the buses on the microgrid tend to experience voltage stability problems during the holiday seasons due to population flux and higher stochasticity of the load. Thus, measures to enhance the stability of the weak points in the microgrid in such periods need to be considered. Based on the results of the study, the proposed renewable microgrid in Arandun is a promising prospect.

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