RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF OMU-ARAN 132/33kV SUBSTATION UNDER STEADY-STATE

ALABI, AYODELE JOHN CHUKWUBUIKEM (2022) RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF OMU-ARAN 132/33kV SUBSTATION UNDER STEADY-STATE. Masters thesis, Landmark University, Omu Aran, Kwara State.

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Abstract

Reliability analysis and prediction of Omu-Aran 132/33kV Transmission Station, Omu-Aran Kwara State, and its associated 33kV feeders was investigated in this study. Analytical method was used to compute reliability indices, a multilayer feed-forward neural network (robotics) trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) feedforward technique was used to predict the reliability of station and outgoing 33kV feeders. Power flow was conducted using Power System Analysis Toolbox (PSAT) in MATLAB. Power flow result conducted on the 33kV feeders reveal that Otun 33kV feeder has the highest magnitude of power loss. It has real power (P) loss of 0.03906pu and reactive power (Q) loss 0.3622pu while Oro-Ago 33kV feeder has the least power loss with real power (P) value of 0.0006pu and reactive power (Q) of 0.00031pu. The station recorded an improvement in reliability with Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) of 1219.43 hours in 2020 compared to 261.13hours recorded in 2016. It has the least failure rate of 0.00151 hours in 2019 with the least Mean Down Time (MDT) of 7.5625hours in 2015.The least number of interruptions were experienced in 2020 with System Average Interuption Index (SAIFI) of 0.0016 interruption/customer, highest System Average Interuption Duration Index (SAIDI) of 0.0122hours/customer(sustained interruption duration)in 2016, Customer Average Interuption Duration Index (CAIDI) of 35.4286 in 2020 and six years mean Average Service Availability Index (ASAI) of 0.9755. On the 33kV outgoing feeders, Otun 33kV feeder has the least average SAIFI and SAIDI values of 0.0963interruption/customer and 0.2291hours/customer respectively. Customers on this feeder experience the least number of interruptions and the least duration of the sustained interruption. Omu-Aran 33kV feeder has the least CAIDI of 1.7809 interruptions/customer. Customers on this feeder experience the least number of continuous interruptions. Omu-Aran 33kV feeder also recorded a mean ASAI of 0.8359 and Isanlu-Isin 33kV feeder recorded the least ASAI with a mean ASAI of 0.5943. The reliability prediction result is accurate with minimal error. There is a good agreement between Target, Training, and Testing results using Artificial Neural Network (ANN).

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