Macroeconomic implications of escalating stock of public debt: Evidence from sub‐Saharan African economies

Olaoye, Olumide Olusegun and Tabash, Mosab I. and Omokanmi, Olatunde Julius and Ogunjumo, Rotimi Ayoade and Ojelade, Matthew Oyeleke and Ishola, James A. (2022) Macroeconomic implications of escalating stock of public debt: Evidence from sub‐Saharan African economies. African Development Review. pp. 1-14.

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Abstract

The study investigated the effect of public debts on macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and the exchange rate, using a panel of 25 sub‐Saharan African (SSA) economies. The study contributed to extant studies by looking at the separate effect of domestic and foreign debts on inflation and exchange rate. We adopted a battery of econometric tools such as the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and the dynamic panel threshold model. The results show that foreign debts worsen the inflation rate and expose the economy to unanticipated movements in the exchange rate, whereas domestic debts help to reduce the inflationary pressure. The study also found a nonlinear relationship between public debts and macroeconomic indicators of inflation and exchange rates. This implies the further accumulation of foreign debt will heighten the inflation rate and expose the region to unanticipated movements in the exchange rate. The study recommends that governments and policymakers in SSA should ensure that foreign debts are sufficiently hedged against currency and interest rate risks to reduce the exposure of SSA economies to exchange rate risks. The study also recommends that governments adhere strictly to the maximum debt limit of 60.59% (of gross domestic product), otherwise inflation and exchange rates may worsen.

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